The Chiefs are coming off one of their most successful seasons in franchise history; however, they failed to beat the Patriots in the third round of the playoffs losing 37-31. Patrick Mahomes, who the Chiefs traded up to nab in the first round of the 2017 draft, played lights out and after one season as the starter, commanded the respect from players and coaches across the league. He was named the NFL MVP after a season throwing for just under 5,400 yards, 50 touchdowns to only 13 interceptions with a completion percentage of 66. This award was well-deserved and Mahomes has the skills and natural abilities to be one of the best quarterbacks of this generation. He has all the physical traits you want in a quarterback, as well as all the leadership capabilities.
Along with the 2018 MVP, the Chiefs offense was comprised of speedy do-it-all receiver Tyreek Hill, top 3 Tight End Travis Kelce, and former Bills first round pick, Sammy Watkins. The offense was high-powered, even with the loss of Kareem Hunt towards the end of the season. Damien Williams was picked up just after Hunt’s departure and was able to fill his role in the offense far better than many expected. With all these stars and role players KC led the NFL in points scored. So with this legendary offensive unit, how did the team not get to the Super Bowl? The defense. Without even an average defense, it is very difficult to win against the best teams in the NFL, no matter how high-powered your offense is.
The Chiefs found this out when they lost in a high scoring shootout against the New England Patriots in last years Conference Championship game. It came down to who could make the most stops, and the Patriots checked that box. The KC defense was gashed for a five yard run here and a seven yard quick pass there, seemingly every play crippled the will of the defense. Unsurprisingly so the unit gave up the second most points in the league last year with a whopping 462 points allowed. The offense constantly had to pick up the defense and carry them to wins. With players like Justin Houston, Dee Ford (albeit one season), Chris Jones and Eric Berry, one might think the defense would be at least above average. The problem is only one of those names is in the secondary, where the Chiefs struggled mightily throughout the year. At the end of the season, many fans and sports analysts expected Kansas City to fix their coverage issues.
The Chiefs did fire defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, who made no adjustments with his scheme and brought in Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnolo. Then, the Chiefs blew up the defense, releasing Justin Houston and letting Eric Berry along with cornerback Steve Nelson walk. Dee Ford was franchise tagged then traded to the 49ers a few days after these first moves. These seemed like a moves in order for Spagnolo to bring in guys he believed fit his scheme better as he runs a 4-3 defense compared to Bob Sutton’s man coverage heavy 3-4 defense. The Chiefs were quiet during free agency outside of the signing of Safety Tyrann Mathieu and a few role players including DE Alex Okafor, CB Bashaud Breeland, HB Carlos Hyde and LB Damien Williams. This was not the end of the offseason though, as Frank Clark of the Seattle Seahawks was then traded to the Chiefs in exchange of their 1st round pick this year, a 2nd round pick next year and swapping their third round picks. Soon after, Clark received the new contract he wanted, 5 years for 104 millions dollars. The Chiefs need Clark to create pressure at an even higher level than he did in Seattle to make his cumbersome contract valuable. The first round pick that KC traded away for Clark was continually slated to be a cornerback such as Deandre Baker from Georgia, Greedy Williams of LSU, and the Washington Huskies Byron Murphy.
The draft is one of the most anticipated times in the NFL cycle. It is where teams do their best to evaluate talent and choose who they think best fits their team. In the draft 2019, the Chiefs picked three defensive players: Juan Thornhill S/CB, Khalen Saunders DT, and Rashad Fenton CB. I love the Thornhill pick because he will instantly help the pass coverage of the defense with his very quick and instinctive skill set as a cornerback turned safety at Virginia. Khalen Saunders was a great value pick in the third round who can contribute rushing the passer immediately along the defensive line with Chris Jones and last years third round pick Derrick Nnadi. Sixth round pick Rashad Fenton is a raw cornerback with familiarity lining up at safety and the nickel position. Fenton also has ability in the return game, which is most likely where we will see the most of him this coming season.
Despite their new additions defensively and forecasted growth of the offense, I believe the team will regress from their historic play last season. Mainly, the bar they set as an offense last year was unbelievably high so expecting them to recreate this level of productivity is asinine. Even if Tyreek Hill manages to see the field at all this year, which is highly unlikely due to his off-field issue, the offense may be hindered. Secondly, the defense, even if it improves slightly, is still one of the worst coverage defenses on paper in the league. The transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme is not as much of a dramatic change as many make it out to be, but it is a change nonetheless. Spagnolo has his work cut out for him and if he believes producing pressure is superior to coverage, he will find out he is wrong quick, fast, and in a hurry.
My prediction is the Kansas City Chiefs finish the season 10-6, just two games worse than last year and will be a wild card team. It will not be an easy road to get to 10 and 6 either. With a target on their back they will be exposed to the rigors of a gritty first place schedule. Despite this, I do believe we will see growth from the young core of players and I expect the Chiefs to be a perennial contender as long as Mahomes remains the starting Quarterback.
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